Friday, November 16, 2007

Credit Crunch = $2 Trillion Shock

A number of recent estimates have calculated the projected direct losses of the mortgage related credit crunch at over $500 Billion. This figure primarily focuses on the write-downs at banks and other institutions.

A recent estimate on the overall impact of lending by Goldman's chief U.S. economist, Jan Hatzius, places the reduction in lending at over $2 Trillion. This type of scale-back has the significant probability of triggering a recession or causing a subpar growth scenario over the next few years. Remember the old expression about 'the economy slides on a slippery slope of loaned money." Any type of reduction in mainstream lending to worthy creditors has a negative impact on macro-economic growth.

Economist: U.S. facing $2 trillion lending shock
Goldman Sachs analyst predicts impact from credit crunch