Interesting Commentary from Andrew Lo

The link below goes to a video with Andrew Lo with some interesting commentary about how the current financial crisis altered the underpinnings of investment diversification. Andrew LO is an award winning MIT economist.

http://www.investmentnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=wealthtrack

The Ascent of Money

Earlier this week, PBS ran a special two hour program "The Ascent of Money". The program is an excellent overview of current financial crisis placed in context of other historical events. The show includes some excellent commentary and interview clips.

It can be watched online at:
http://www.pbs.org/wnet/ascentofmoney/

Fannie and Freddie

Obviously the biggest news on Wall Street this week was the Federal Government seizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac before both of these mortgage giants failed in a catastrophic manner. These companies have been faltering for many months while looking for lines of credit to bail them out, the government went one step further and completely took over the firms while giving top executives the boot.

The entire situation is also another example of intervention not allowing proper capitalism to play out in the market. The term “moral hazard” comes to mind in which businesses do not take responsibility for their risky behavior; this only entices other businesses to take poor risks. Especially in an environment where it appears that “gains for privatized and losses are socialized”.

While the government takeover may have buffered the mortgage market in the short term and cheered up Wall Street on Monday, the long term picture is much less clear. The U.S. tax payer is going to be stuck with the tab. The question remains on just how big the tab will be – estimates range from $250 billion to $5 trillion. The actual cost is very dependent on how the housing market and associated credit recovers. One recent article outlined how the seizure of these mortgage giant is the taxpayer’s risk (If takeover tanks, we're holding bag).

Similar too many previous government interventions, this action with Freddie and Fannie may help alleviate the short term crisis, but the toll down the road will be much greater and more painful.

WaMu CEO given the Boot

Past HingeFire articles have outlined in detail the issues at Washington Mutual and urged banking customers to pull out funds over the FDIC limit. News today shows that Washington Mutual has ousted CEO Kerry Killinger. WM stock is down over 15% in mid-day trading.

It is also interesting that Washington Mutual agreed to further oversight by the Office of Thrift Supervision concerning aspects of its operations. This demonstrates the high level of concern regarding the solvency of the institution from a regulatory perspective.

Are Banks at a bottom?

A recent Motley Fool article asks if it “Is It Time to Buy the Banks?” The KBW banking index is down over 40% from the year before levels. The constant stream of news from the banking sector appears to be negative; more FDIC takeovers, increasing write-downs, and larger banks as take-over targets.

One point of view says the entire banking industry will be in trouble for the next 12 months with increasing failures and negative headline press. The other side of the coin outlined by Motley Fool states that banks offer a compelling value purchase situation and the KBW index may have seen its trough.

Investors can look at yield, P/E, book value, Justified P/BV, or other ratios. Using the math, it appears that banks may be near a historic valuation low and are due for rebound. At minimum, it is time to start investigating stronger individual stocks in this sector for purchase.

How to Screen for Strong Banks

Amidst all the carnage in the financial sector, how can you screen for the stronger banks and financial institutions that are likely go come out of the credit crunch as leaders.

The best starting point is creating a screen that searches for potential candidates. The key question is what criteria should be in this screen. Basically you need to hunt for financial institutions that display the following characteristics.

• The earnings are still positive.
• The yield is above 0.5%.
• The bank stocks trades at reasonable volume above a price of $2
• The bank stock price performance is exhibiting strength against both the S&P 500 and the bank stock index over the past 3 and 6 month periods.
• Technical the bank is exhibiting positive moving average trends in the short term and the rate of change is positive.

A basic bank screen that meets the points above can be created within HingeScreen. A user can go to create mode and add the following criteria. In this case, we are searching for financial institutions priced above $2 with volumes over 10K that have outperformed the S&P 500 and KBW bank index. The trailing dividend yield must be above 0.5% (forward yield can also be considered). Technically the rate of change (ROC) must be positive, while the recent 20 day moving average must be above the 50 day. These technical points will show a recent positive trend in stock pricing.

The screen is saved as BankScanOne.

The next step is to jump to Execute Mode and run the screen. The results align with expectations; it is a mix of stronger regional banks, REITs (primarily with a healthcare focus), and some financial service organizations.

The stronger banks in the results such Valley National Bancorp NJ (VLY), and Wilshire Bancorp (WIBC) are examples of regional institutions that avoided obscene mortgage lending and maintained their balance sheets in good order over the past few years.

The majority of the REITS that show up in the results such as Health Care Property (HCP), Health Care REIT (HCN), and Healthcare Realty Trust (HR) are examples of REITS that are focused on stronger market segments and have easily avoided the worse aspects of the real estate downturn.

A few financial service organizations such as Northern Trust (NTRS) and PNC Financial Serv. (PNC) also show up in the results. A number of players providing financial services have used the downturn to strengthen their offerings and market position.

Using HingeScreen it is easy to save the results to a spreadsheet for further evaluation. Simply press the button on the right that looks like a floppy disk and the results are saved to a spreadsheet format file that can be opened using Excel. By default the saved result files are placed in the C:\Program Files\HingeFire\Results directory.

HingeScreen is a powerful tool to find stocks that meet the performance and diversification needs for your portfolio. It is useful for identifying candidates that are likely to come out of a downturn as leaders in a sector. HingeFire provides an excellent video library outlining how to use the tool at: http://www.hingefire.com/Education/KnowledgeBase/HingeVideos.aspx

Ignore the Press, Hedge Funds are still a Viable Investment

The hue and cry from the press regarding Hedge Funds continues unabated. Obviously a good number of funds have blown up over the past year, causing a sizeable investor headache.

One recent article “4 Reasons Why Investors Should Avoid Hedge Funds at All Costs” outlines issues with oversight, managerial churn, investment concentration, and short life spans. These aspects should be concerns for many individual investors, but should not serve to rule out hedge funds as appropriate portfolio component for qualified investors. Despite the recent turmoil, Hedge Funds have a long history of serving the needs of qualified investors; one excellent summary of Hedge Funds can be found in the Knowledge Base section on the HingeFire website.

One financial industry issue is that everyone and their brother opened a Hedge Fund in the past few years. Most chased similar strategies involving credit spreads that all fell apart at the exact same time as the black swan came for a visit.

Most of these funds did not have a long track record and a number of the managers simply marched down the street and opened a new fund after the wheels fell off their previous effort. Investors need to differentiate between hedge funds with long track records, some spanning decades, and those opened within the past few years.

Hedge Funds should only be used by investors who understand the risks and expectations. During the past few years, the sales of Hedge Funds have gone down-market as the funds were sold to people who were marginally qualified, many times wrapped up by major brokerage firms as fund-of-funds (or a pyramid of fees). Certainly the unscrupulous account representatives made plenty on commissions but they were not selling a product that was appropriate for the customer. Many investors were convinced to place nearly their entire portfolios into Hedge Funds will the promise of huge returns, a good number of these individuals are now crying foul to regulators.

Hedge Funds are only appropriate for institutions and qualified investors who understand finance. These customers recognize the investment is long term and are using the funds as a diversification mechanism in context of a larger portfolio. Hedge Funds do have an appropriate place in the market. It would remain best that they are not regulated except for stronger restrictions on the qualifications of investors who can utilize these vehicles.

Before advent commodity ETFs and mutual funds, many well-heeled investors used funds requiring investor qualification for exposure to the commodity markets. Most of the funds were CTA/CPO run by individuals with Series 3 licensing. This was a very appropriate diversification method for investors with sizeable portfolios.

Hedge Funds are also in the forefront of offering products that are difficult to obtain exposure from using standard retail financial products; some examples include currency, private equity, and credit spreads. For qualified investors the Hedge Fund products serve as an important diversification tool.

Investors who meet the qualification requirements of Hedge Funds should not automatically rule out these investment vehicles due to all the recent bad press. An investor should evaluate the needs of their portfolio in regards to diversification, returns, and timeframe in order to make an informed decision about Hedge Fund investment. It is important to use on-line resources to properly investigate the returns, longevity, and track record of Hedge Funds rather than simply investing in a fund-of-funds pushed by major brokerage firms. Hedge Funds can serve an important role in your portfolio, and investors should approach these vehicles with an open mind, and more importantly with open eyes.

Wachovia Earnings Call

Wachovia held its earnings call Tuesday. As expected the news was bleak; headlined by an $8.9 Billion loss, a steep dividend cut, and 10,750 job cuts. However, the stock rallied on the news and earnings call. While the loss and job cuts are painful, it appears that Wachovia has a plan to turn its operations around and deal with the bank’s mortgage exposure.

The stock rally demonstrates the confidence that Wall Street has in new CEO Robert Steel. Some of the points in the turn-around plan were outlined in the conference call transcript. Wachovia will not be raising more capital or selling additional stock that would dilute current shareholders stake. The dividend cut to 5 cents per share will save $700 million per quarter, while the wholesale mortgage operation will be shut down. Analysts expect that the bank will remain an independent operation.

Wachovia: Turning the corner

The recent press headlines for Wachovia have been bleak recently; auction-rate security investigation raids, analyst downgrades, and sliding share prices. It seems that the bank can't catch a break from the negative media coverage. This is on top of all the earlier problems that led many to question the underlying integrity of the entire institution which in the past has joined telemarketers to scam it's own customers, and was fined $145 million from the Feds.

Despite all the difficult news there is a bright spot -- and his name is new CEO Robert Steel . Right from the initial conference call it appears that he is on the right track. He is going to first evaluate the "challenges" faced by the bank with particular focus on the residential mortgage portfolio and exposure to commercial real estate. Steel promises to outline his strategy on July 22, when the bank is slated to report its second quarter earnings. In a couple days we will be able to see how Wall Street reacts to the earnings and the vision of the new leadership.

Based on his reputation in both capital markets and government; Steel is likely to restore what is most important to Wachovia - a reputation for integrity.

Is Your Bank Next?

A slew of mainsteam press articles a month back stated that the credit crunch was over. Not so fast! As outlined in articles on HingeFire in May (see Is the Financial Crunch over?) the financial sector is ripe for continued turmoil.

The top headline news today outlined the shares of U.S. banks plummeting amid stability fears. Sizeable regional banks such as Wachovia, WaMu, and National City are near the top of the list that investors believe have the likelihood to fail.

‘"It's the cockroach theory. You don't just have one bank failure -- when you have a big bank go under, there's always more than one," said James Ellman, president of hedge fund Seacliff Capital, who is short some financial stocks.’

The failure of IndyMac in many ways was a standard run on a bank. Panicked depositors lined up outside the doors pulling out $100 million a day causing what regulators called the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history. It was clear to regulators, politicians, and investors that IndyMac was in trouble, leaving only the question of degree. This type on depositor driven panic could easily happen to other struggling regional-type banks.

'One woman leaned on the locked doors, pleading with an employee inside: "Please, please, I want to take out a portion." All she could do was read a two-page notice taped to the door.'

At some point the FDIC will not be able to handle the level of defaults. While the FDIC has staffed up expecting more failures, the federally sponsored insurance agency is primarily focused on merging banks in trouble. The FDIC does not have deep pockets to bail out a chain of sizeable cascading failures.

Regional banks are not the only concern. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are in deep trouble. To avoid total financial market panic, the White House administration has ask Congress this past weekend to approve a plan that would provide a credit line of some $300 billion to the troubled GSEs and buy their stock. The Fed passed measures to allow both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to borrow at its discount window. Clearly, the government's hand was forced by a $3 billion Freddie auction scheduled for today that would have revealed the extent of the disaster without government intervention.

Is your bank next?

Will you be lined up at the door of your local institution begging to get your money out while the door is slammed in your face?

This is a time to carefully evaluate the safety rating of your local bank where you have deposited your money. If the bank looks the least bit shaky then your should get your funds out before a wide-spread panic develops.

Hitting Top Returns in midst of Market Turmoil

What does it take to hit solid market returns even when market conditions are leaving the most experienced investors fearful? It comes down to proper stock selection and having the appropriate tools to find the best investments on both the long and short side of the market.

The FREE HingeFire stock screener is a powerful product that merges fundamental and technical indicators in a single tool. This helps put the market edge in the corner of investors.

GregB is now ranked 267 out of 18824 players in the Wall Street Survivor Contest (Traders Wanted - Play $50,000 Stock Trading Game). The evening before the contest, I ran the HingeBuy and HingeSell screens in the HingeScreen 1.5 product. These screens normally produce 30 to 50 results. HingeBuy provides a list of stocks that have the potential to out-perform the market; while HingeSell produces a list of stocks that are likely to under-perform.

It comes down to proper stock selection enabled by the HingeScreen product. I only had to pick a set of stocks once, at the very beginning of the contest to be successful. No need to churn the portfolio or trade.

A summary of the results to date are provided below. Note that all of the longs are still above water despite the violent downtrend in the market over the past few weeks. The balanced long and short portfolio is an excellent example of how to squeeze excess alpha out of the market. The overall return of the portfolio was +14.74% over a few weeks (72.68% on a yearly basis).

Longs
Symbol Return
------------------------
MOS +15.92%
XEC +0.86%
AXYS +0.46%
DAR +10.36%
BMI +0.06%

Shorts
Symbol Return
------------------------
FSNM +53.83%
GSAT +31.12%
CIX +22.65%
LYTS +19.54%
MEDX -5.19%


Disclosure: These stocks have been selected in a fantasy stock selection contest. They are not held in my real portfolio. Investing involves risk. Your results using software screening informational tools may vary. Proper portfolio diversification is important and any outlined investments may not be appropriate for your financial objectives or risk tolerance. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell securities.

The Gold prediction

A few months back we held a survey regarding the expected price of Gold on July 1st. The results were as follows:

Above $1100 24%
Between $1000 and $1100 24%
Between $900 and $1000 22%
Between $800 and $900 15%
Below $800 15%

The actual price of gold on July 1st was around $937. Congrats to the 22% of poll takers that correctly predicted the $900 to $1000 price range.

Since the start of July, gold has been looking bit toppy as if the momentum has disappeared in the market for this precious metal. It sunk to near $916 before staging a rebound in the past couple of days. This may be setting the stage for the next leg of the run up, however it is more likely a small bounce before further downward action. The next few weeks will be interesting to watch in this market.

Cisco dashes 2008 recovery hopes but there is light

Earlier commentary associated Cisco outlined hopes of a tech sector recovery in 2008. Recent comments on Tuesday by CEO John Chambers dashed those hopes. He stated "I think most of us realize that it's probably going to be a little bit longer than the one to two quarters that some people had hoped for.”

In reaction most analysts cut their forecasts for CSCO citing that both the remainder of 2008 and 2009 could be challenging for the company.

Cisco stock dropped to $21.76 late Wednesday afternoon. Despite the bearish trend of CSCO and the overall market recently; a basic predictive analysis spreadsheet that utilizes volatility, mean return, standard deviation, trend, and other factors indicates the future is not so gloomy. A quick run of the spreadsheet shows that CSCO has a 5% chance of hitting $30 in the next 90 days and only a 1% chance of hitting $16.

This shows that a basic short-term analysis is leaning towards a more bullish case for Cisco stock – hopefully the market follows through and provides shareholders with some type of short-term rebound. However the long term price is always driven by the fundamentals, which in this case is dependent on an overall tech sector recovery.

At minimum a soft economic patch will provide the 800lb gorilla Cisco the opportunity to shake some of the smaller competing monkeys out of the trees. Cisco has tradition of leaving competitors in the dust; especially taking advantage of downturns to enhance their position in both existing and newly emerging markets.

Screening for the Top 2%

How does an investor land up ranked in the top 2%? It takes a serious approach to screening the universe of stocks to sort out the wheat from the chaff. Screening a list of potential candidate stocks is just the first step.

GregB is now ranked 284 out of 17989 players in the Wall Street Survivor Contest (Traders Wanted - Play $50,000 Stock Trading Game). The evening before the contest, I ran the HingeBuy and HingeSell screens in the HingeScreen 1.5 product. These screens normally produce 30 to 50 results. HingeBuy provides a list of stocks that have the potential to out-perform the market; while HingeSell produces a list of stocks that are likely to under-perform.

The next immediate question is how did I narrow these lists down to 5 stocks as longs and 5 stocks as short to use in the Wall Street Survivor contest.

In terms of the five stocks I selected from the HingeBuy list for the contest. I pulled up each stock on the list at the time (there were about 30 to 40) and took a detailed look at the charts, industries, fundamental info, and technical indicators to narrow down the selection. For the HingeSell (short) candidates I basically look for the inverse of the outline below.

Basically the following were evaluated for each potential long stock:

1) Strength of the chart over the past year. Look for a chart where the stock is continually rising with some minor pull-backs. Look for strong increases in the past six months. Do not want a stock where the stock price had a one time big bump due to a news event; nor a stock where the chart is basically flat but still outperformed the associated indexes.

2) Evaluate the industry that the company is in and the industry performance over the last six months compared to other others.

3) Rank the stock within the Industry from a relative performance perspective.

4) Fundamental information evaluation with a focus on earnings growth, revenue growth, cash flow, debt and their associated ratios. Do not focus on forward P/E etc. because many times the projections are nonsense.

5) Technical evaluation of the price chart looking for divergence between the price action and technical indicators (MACD, RSI, etc.). Divergence may indicate an impending change in price action. Also look for extreme readings in oscillator-based indicators which may show that a bounce-back is overdue. Keep in mind that technical indicators are good for evaluating short term action; long term price is driven by fundamentals.

6) Take a look at news from corporate press releases. Look for management churn, re-orgs, layoffs, product cancellations, guidance (vs. price reaction), and regulatory action. These are generally not positive developments.

Basically rank all the stocks on the HingeBuy candidate list from 1 to 5 using the criteria above. Five being the strongest. Select the five stocks with the highest rating.

For HingeSell and shorts - look for the inverse.

Note in my terms, the outline above is my light-weight starting point evaluation. I normally dig into the 10Q / 10K reports when selecting stocks for my actual portfolio. I would urge everyone else to do the same. A stock screener is a tool to find stocks that meet your basic criteria - a more detailed follow-up analysis is needed to find the best stocks for your portfolio that meet your diversification and risk-tolerance needs.

Disclosure: These stocks have been selected in a fantasy stock selection contest. They are not held in my real portfolio. Investing involves risk. Your results using software screening informational tools may vary. Proper portfolio diversification is important and any outlined investments may not be appropriate for your financial objectives or risk tolerance. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell securities.

Global Inflation: The New Crisis

A new monster has raised its ugly head to spook investors. Inflation is accelerating at a rapid pace providing policy makers with a new set of ulcers. Unfortunately basic antacid tablets will not cure the unsettled guts of national regulators.

The spike in inflation gives flashbacks to the dreaded 1970s with stagflation era. Many older investors do not enjoy reminiscing about interest rates above 14%, food rising in price each week, investors hoarding gold coins, and long gas lines. The dilemma is that all the statistics indicate that we are heading towards a scenario with run-away rising inflation worldwide.

Regulators have commented on rising inflation, raised interest rates in hopes of moderation, and are shocked to see the numbers running upward like an out-of-control train down the tracks. With rising commodity costs, pent up wage increase requirements, and tightening credit; there is not very much the regulators will be able to do to apply the brakes.

Certainly the news flow has not been encouraging, the ECB raised lending rates today amid record inflation, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said inflation was becoming the top economic focus of many countries.

Inflation is a global phenomenon; impacting countries as diverse as Iran (with 26% inflation), the Philippines, Brazil, India, Russia, South Korea, Mexico, and Indonesia. No country is immune and no market is safe. Rapidly increasing inflation is the top concern in most nations, and the situation rapidly appears to be heading towards stagflation.

The immediate question becomes how should an investor prepare for this situation? The first emphasis is that a greater portion of your portfolio needs to be placed in commodities and precious metals, or in stocks focused on these industries. There is also a need to have your income oriented investments placed in vehicles which are inflation indexed in regards to interest rates. The other alternative is the keep cash in shorter term CDs as inflation and interest rates rise, allowing an investor to ride the rising curve.

Successful investing in a rising inflationary environment is difficult. Usually the stock market returns are dismal and many other investments are also victims of an inflationary spiral. Still it is best to keep your focus on the long term, and maintain a diversified portfolio of stocks that have wide economic moats. These companies invariably become stronger in downturns as competitors fall by the wayside.

Investors should pay close attention to news about inflation during the remainder of 2008 and start making appropriate adjustments to their portfolio to ride out the storm.

Dark Pools going strong

Despite regulatory concerns and consolidation worries, the Dark Pool business is still showing enormous strength. New dark pools venues are implemented regularly and the profits are looking solid.

Reflecting this strength, LiquidNet has now filed for a $500 million IPO. Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse Securities are overseeing the transaction. Despite the generally weak IPO markets, there is the expectation that this will be one of the strongest public offerings of the year.

Are You in the Top 5% of Investors

GregB is currently ranked 350 out of 15872 investors in the current Wall Street Survivor contest - Traders Wanted - Play $50,000 Stock Trading Game

This is the third time I have selected 5 stocks from the HingeBuy list as longs and 5 stocks from the HingeSell list as shorts the night before a contest opened and held the picks with no trades. The outcome has been the same in all three contests, the results are in the top 5%.

Isn’t time that you used information that could power top-ranked investing results? This is the power of the automated HingeBull and HingeBear selection process that is integrated in the FREE HingeScreen product.

One of the primary beliefs of the founders of HingeFire is that investors do not need $3000 seminars to be successful in the market. Investors simply need the tools to provide an edge in the market and a community of like-minded investors to work with. The objective of HingeFire is to build the tools and community to enable the success of investors at all levels.

I will confess that my results when I try to simply pick stocks that are “hot” or I got a “tip from a friend on" – are dismal. This is why it is important to use tools that can objectively screen the universe of stocks to define the stocks with the most potential. Start using the HingeFire stock screener today and get the information that will give you this type of edge on the market.

Disclosure: These stocks have been selected in a fantasy stock selection contest. They are not held in my real portfolio. Investing involves risk. Your results using software screening informational tools may vary. Proper portfolio diversification is important and any outlined investments may not be appropriate for your financial objectives or risk tolerance. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell securities.

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Sticking it to investors: SEC does not want to hold Credit Rating agencies accountable for their ratings

So what does a regulator do went they find out that the credit ratings applied to money market accounts are basically meaningless? Do they:

A) Get tough with the credit rating agencies and demand that they properly evaluate and grade interest bearing instruments.

B) Open the credit rating market up to new companies, hoping that the competition fosters an improvement in credit ratings.

C) Propose reducing reliance on credit ratings, including proposing to eliminate a requirement that money market funds hold highly-rated securities.

If you selected C then congratulations - you are a winner. The SEC is moving forward with a policy of weaning investors and Wall Street institutions from over-reliance on credit ratings, instead of fixing the credit rating firms. While the proposal does require that fund managers assess a security's liquidity and inform investors, we have seen quickly a formerly-liquid credit market can lock up. The major focus is to deemphasize credit rating agencies and effectively get them off-the-hook for the terrible job they have done in terms of properly rating securities. There is no need for the agencies to reform their processes.

Worst yet, investors are now basically being told that they are on their own when if comes to evaluating the safety of money market funds and interest-bearing funds. This is setting the table for a future crisis. At some point in the future there will be a large number of grandmothers spread across the nation who will be quite unhappy with this change in regulatory mindset.

SEC proposes reduced reliance on credit raters

Who wants to buy Circuit City?

An earlier summary regarding Circuit City outlined how all of the vultures that have been sitting on the sideline would be drawn out once Blockbuster started bidding. It is time to either fish or cut bait for all other potential suitors.

An article from Reuters today stated that Circuit City has received buyout interest from several strategic and financial bidders. A sale is expected to be announced over the next month.

The only question at this point is how much the carcass of this poorly managed electronics retailer will go for? I believe that many long suffering stockholders will be sadly disappointed at the price.