The Future of the Euro

The fire and brimstone clouding the European sky is not the volcanic ash from Iceland but rather the bleak outlook for a unified currency. To put it mildly the Euro is doomed, it is just a just a question of how the entire scenario unfolds.

Currencies only work for a nation when their own central government has control over the money. A country using a currency while ceding control of the exchange mechanism simply makes the nation a victim of all the other entities using the notes. Germany and other northern European nations recently learned this harsh lesson. The Euro worked while all the economies across the continent were rising, but quickly imploded when a recession occurred. The southern European nations with poor financial controls that that have historically defaulted multiple times are now in a position to collectively drag down the entire collection of economies due to the common currency. Prior the Euro these countries would default and their individual currencies would be devalued.

It is true that the more people that use a currency then the stronger the value. Witness the strength of the deutschemark after the inclusion of East Germany. However a country must have sole control over their currency and not yield power to a central authority in order to be successful. I found that the Germans were very supportive of the merger of East and West Germany despite concerns over the poverty in the East at the time. Today, Germans are outright furious that the country is bailing out Greece and other nations. Most of the people on the street recognize what is going to happen next which is why they are lining up at banks to demand Euro notes with X’s in the serial numbers that are associated with Germany and not other countries.

While the entire situation can play out in multiple scenarios; there are two obvious ones. The first is that the Euro will divide into two segments, the stronger northern European nations with one version of the Euro and the southern European nations with a version of the Euro which is next to worthless. This explains why German citizens are lined up demanding “their national Euro notes”. It is likely that outside notes will soon be devalued.

The second possible scenario involves individual countries withdrawing from the Euro exchange mechanism and reinstituting their own national currencies. A good number of barriers and political negotiations will have to be overcome to allow this type of withdrawal. On the other hand people rioting in the streets generally has the tendency to make central union decision making to move with more haste.

Another likely scenario involving individual nations withdrawing from the Euro focuses on the central union giving countries with debt problems the boot and demanding that they withdraw from the Euro. As the size and scope of the debt issues become more apparent there will be a greater howl across the continent for the offending nations to withdraw.

In the long term where will this leave the Euro? It would be best if it was used as a basket of currencies for international trade as it was originally intended – 23% franc, 34% deutschemark, etc. rather than being used as a universal note in retail trade across the entire EU block. The disbanding of the common Euro is the best solution and the obvious path for continent.

Humor: The Story of the Banks in Iceland

It started with bankers in the U.K. asking 'Where can we find some pansies to sell this CDO crap to?"

UK "We are going to make ourselves rich by selling wothless CDOs dressed up as jewels to your fishermen banks"
Iceland "Yeah we are getting rich.... Big Party."
UK "We will even sell short and bet against the crap we sold you"
Iceland "Hey, this stuff melted down and is worthless."
UK "By the way we expect you to tax all your citizens 3 million dollars each to make up for our 'losses'".
Iceland "FU - stuff it. We voted and ain't paying."
UK "We'll start seizing your international assets till you pay."
Iceland "FU. Enjoy some volcanic ash."
UK "Stop.... you're sinking our economy!"
Iceland "Maybe you should of thought about that before you demanded repayment on the worthless crap you sold us."
UK "Choke....cough.... choke...."

Today's Cartoon

Analysis: SEC vs. Goldman

The civil fraud charges filed by the Securities and Exchange Commission Friday accused Goldman Sachs of "defrauding investors by misstating and omitting key facts". These financial charges also mark a new era of government regulatory enforcement of Wall Street. No longer will the SEC simply come to consent decrees with financial firms where they do not admit guilt and in most cases pay a small fine viewed as a cost of doing illegal business.

One immediate question is how do the SEC charges filed against Goldman Sachs change the playing field? Do these charges even mean anything in a broader regulatory context? In my opinion, the actions from the SEC on Friday defines a new playing field by Washington marked with the following game-changing alterations:

a) A broader effort to get the derivatives market properly regulated to minimize the possibility of future meltdowns.
b) The Goldman Sachs charges are expected to be the first of a lengthy string of government actions against multiple firms that contributed to the financial meltdown. The lack of accountability by firms which accepted bailouts is no longer acceptable to main street and their representatives in Washington.
c) A dismantling by regulation of firms that are "too big to fail"; including the scaling back of previous government legislation that allowed the merger of commercial and investment banks.
d) The teeth of the SEC are back in place. For the last twenty years the SEC has been a toothless enforcement entity; forcing state AGs to take a leading prosecution role in financial malfeasance. This is likely to be the start of a change where the federal government will have deep roots in the policing of problems involving large financial firms.

The roll out of these regulatory reforms are expected to take years; however as noted by an AFP news article "We suspect that after Friday, others on Wall Street may have a harder time sleeping."

Another good clip is Ratigan on MSNBC where he compares Goldman Sachs to an automobile manufacturing company that deliberately took critical component from the inside of cars (CDOs) and then sold the cars as being great investments while betting on the side that the cars they created would all blow up spectacularly. An apt analogy - watch it here.

WaMu Execs dragged before Congress today

There will be excitement in Washington today as former WaMu Execs are dragged before Congress kicking and screaming. Now that a Senate panel has had over 18 months to gather information, hopefully some sharp questions will be asked about Washington Mutual's abusive and illegal practices.

Allow me to urge the Congressional panel headed by Senator Carl Levin to refer the entire situation to the Justice Department for criminal prosecution.

'Washington Mutual "was one of the worst," Levin told reporters Monday. "This was a Main Street bank that got taken in by these Wall Street profits that were offered to it."'

Top ex-WaMu executives come before Congress
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100413/ap_on_bi_ge/us_washington_mutual_investigation

Even a year later - WaMu failure still in the headlines

Washington Mutual was a bank that desperately deserved to fail. Even a year after its demise, WaMu is still making the headlines. One example is is the CNN Money article below...

WaMu: The Forgotten Bank Failure

The biggest-ever bank collapse didn't lead to chaos, but Americans will pay the price for its unsound lending for years to come.

Washington Mutual is long gone, but its lax lending could haunt us for years.

The Seattle-based institution collapsed in the largest-ever U.S. bank failure last September. WaMu ran out of cash after business customers, unnerved by the implosion of Lehman Brothers, withdrew their uninsured deposits.

After the chaos surrounding Lehman's demise, WaMu was put to rest with little fuss. Regulators seized the nation's sixth-biggest bank on a Thursday night — a departure from the customary Friday — and sold it to JPMorgan Chase for $1.9 billion.

The move wiped out WaMu's 56,000 shareholders of record and left bondholders nursing billions of dollars in losses. But the WaMu deal spared the federal deposit insurance fund and thus was, unlike so many federal actions over the past year, an unalloyed positive for taxpayers.

http://finance.yahoo.com/loans/article/107676/wamu-the-forgotten-bank-failure.html?mod=loans-home >

Trillion Dollar Bailout

Come play the game: Trillion Dollar Bailout

"Punish greedy fat cats and save honest peoples! Hand out moneys to homeowners. Put the hurt on dudes in suits! Do it right and save the world!"

Drag the slap symbol to deny a bailout and drag the cash bag to provide assistance to the various characters that pop-up.

Here are some hints - don't give the money to banks & only give to homeowners who are not in foreclosure. Go to the Addicting Games site to play.

The Ascent of Money

Earlier this week, PBS ran a special two hour program "The Ascent of Money". The program is an excellent overview of current financial crisis placed in context of other historical events. The show includes some excellent commentary and interview clips.

It can be watched online at:
http://www.pbs.org/wnet/ascentofmoney/

WaMu CEO given the Boot

Past HingeFire articles have outlined in detail the issues at Washington Mutual and urged banking customers to pull out funds over the FDIC limit. News today shows that Washington Mutual has ousted CEO Kerry Killinger. WM stock is down over 15% in mid-day trading.

It is also interesting that Washington Mutual agreed to further oversight by the Office of Thrift Supervision concerning aspects of its operations. This demonstrates the high level of concern regarding the solvency of the institution from a regulatory perspective.

Are Banks at a bottom?

A recent Motley Fool article asks if it “Is It Time to Buy the Banks?” The KBW banking index is down over 40% from the year before levels. The constant stream of news from the banking sector appears to be negative; more FDIC takeovers, increasing write-downs, and larger banks as take-over targets.

One point of view says the entire banking industry will be in trouble for the next 12 months with increasing failures and negative headline press. The other side of the coin outlined by Motley Fool states that banks offer a compelling value purchase situation and the KBW index may have seen its trough.

Investors can look at yield, P/E, book value, Justified P/BV, or other ratios. Using the math, it appears that banks may be near a historic valuation low and are due for rebound. At minimum, it is time to start investigating stronger individual stocks in this sector for purchase.

Bank Safety Ratings on the Web

Bankrate now offers bank safety ratings for free on the web. See the Safe and Sound page of the Bankrate website - http://www.bankrate.com/brm/safesound/ss_home.asp

You can search using many different criteria to find the banks you are interested in. Bankrate provides the following summary to describe the service.

"Bankrate.com's Safe & Sound® service is a proprietary system designed to provide information on the relative financial strength and stability of U.S. commercial banks, savings institutions and credit unions. The system employs a series of twenty-two tests to measure the capital adequacy, asset quality, profitability, and liquidity (CAEL) of each rated financial institution. Individual performance levels are determined from publicly available regulatory filings and are compared to asset-size peer norms, industry standards and key absolute benchmarks. Combined results form the basis for our Composite CAEL and Star Ratings, which are described below. When possible, the system also produces a report that provides a detailed explanation of our findings, for each rated financial institution."

Earlier we had warned everyone to get their money over the FDIC limit out of Washington Mutual. It is interesting to note that WaMu recieved the lowest possible ratings, for both the Bankrate star rating and CAEL rating. - http://www.bankrate.com/brm/safesound/thrftmm.asp?fedid=1000508551

How to Screen for Strong Banks

Amidst all the carnage in the financial sector, how can you screen for the stronger banks and financial institutions that are likely go come out of the credit crunch as leaders.

The best starting point is creating a screen that searches for potential candidates. The key question is what criteria should be in this screen. Basically you need to hunt for financial institutions that display the following characteristics.

• The earnings are still positive.
• The yield is above 0.5%.
• The bank stocks trades at reasonable volume above a price of $2
• The bank stock price performance is exhibiting strength against both the S&P 500 and the bank stock index over the past 3 and 6 month periods.
• Technical the bank is exhibiting positive moving average trends in the short term and the rate of change is positive.

A basic bank screen that meets the points above can be created within HingeScreen. A user can go to create mode and add the following criteria. In this case, we are searching for financial institutions priced above $2 with volumes over 10K that have outperformed the S&P 500 and KBW bank index. The trailing dividend yield must be above 0.5% (forward yield can also be considered). Technically the rate of change (ROC) must be positive, while the recent 20 day moving average must be above the 50 day. These technical points will show a recent positive trend in stock pricing.

The screen is saved as BankScanOne.

The next step is to jump to Execute Mode and run the screen. The results align with expectations; it is a mix of stronger regional banks, REITs (primarily with a healthcare focus), and some financial service organizations.

The stronger banks in the results such Valley National Bancorp NJ (VLY), and Wilshire Bancorp (WIBC) are examples of regional institutions that avoided obscene mortgage lending and maintained their balance sheets in good order over the past few years.

The majority of the REITS that show up in the results such as Health Care Property (HCP), Health Care REIT (HCN), and Healthcare Realty Trust (HR) are examples of REITS that are focused on stronger market segments and have easily avoided the worse aspects of the real estate downturn.

A few financial service organizations such as Northern Trust (NTRS) and PNC Financial Serv. (PNC) also show up in the results. A number of players providing financial services have used the downturn to strengthen their offerings and market position.

Using HingeScreen it is easy to save the results to a spreadsheet for further evaluation. Simply press the button on the right that looks like a floppy disk and the results are saved to a spreadsheet format file that can be opened using Excel. By default the saved result files are placed in the C:\Program Files\HingeFire\Results directory.

HingeScreen is a powerful tool to find stocks that meet the performance and diversification needs for your portfolio. It is useful for identifying candidates that are likely to come out of a downturn as leaders in a sector. HingeFire provides an excellent video library outlining how to use the tool at: http://www.hingefire.com/Education/KnowledgeBase/HingeVideos.aspx

Fear grips banking customers in Venezuela

The march towards nationalization continues unabated. Over the past year the oil, telecommunications, electric, and steel-making sectors have been impacted in President Chávez’s ceaseless drive towards a socialist paradise.

Now the crisis has spilled over to the financial sector as the government seized control of a large Spanish-owned bank, Banco de Venezuela. Nervous depositors lined up seeking reassurance, and many fear a run on the bank in the coming week. Not helping matters, the central Venezuelan bank has been vague in attempting to reassure depositors that the banking system was solid.

Nearly all the companies seized by the government have been run into the ground over a short period of time; productivity has dropped and the feeble earnings have not been reinvested back into the companies.

Venezuelan bonds fell Friday for a second day reflecting “fears over the possible collapse of several banks because of rules forcing them to sell $5 billion of complex securities called structured notes. Banks bought the notes last year at values tied to high black-market rates of the dollar, exposing some of them to huge losses after the local currency, the bolívar, strengthened this year.”

Attempts of individual banks to negotiate their way out of the crisis has not paid returns as the IMF and World Bank have effectively shut off the spigot after being threatened with expulsion by Mr. Chávez.

Even the high price of oil can not cover the cost of large scale programs in Venezuela beyond the next couple of years. Any significant drop in the price of oil will cause an immediate fiscal crisis. At 32%, Venezuela also is experiencing the highest inflation in Latin America. Food-based inflation is above 52%, a crushing level for most of the population. The fiscal crisis and high inflation levels can be directly linked to government policies. This has left the poorest portion of the population, which Chavez claimed would be helped by the government’s policies, in even greater despair.

Is your online bank account safe?

A recent report by researchers at the University of Michigan demonstrates that bank & brokerage websites are plagued by security flaws. These widespread design flaws make it easier for accounts to be compromised. According to Finextra, an examination of 214 bank websites revealed that more than 75% have cracks in security that hackers could exploit to access customer information and accounts.

‘Says Atul Prakash, professor in the department of electrical engineering and computer science: "To our surprise, design flaws that could compromise security were widespread and included some of the largest banks in the country. Our focus was on users who try to be careful, but unfortunately some bank sites make it hard for customers to make the right security decisions when doing online banking."’

This should be a cause for concern for all banking customers, the prospect of going online and finding your account cleared out is a nightmare. Security remains the top concern for banking institutions, and regular steps have been taken to improve the situation. The state of affairs is not as dire as outlined by researchers because many of the security flaws are difficult to exploit.

The real issue with the banking industry is the lack of a systematic defined approach to security testing their websites. There needs to be a single standard that all online financial institutions are tested against.

Cisco has some excellent initiatives such as SAFE that improve the security of customer deployments by defining configurations and testing steps that reduce vulnerabilities. The company also has service-focused teams of specialists that aid customers in securing their networks.

During my time at Cisco, I drove an initiative called SITE (Security Integration, Test and Evaluation) which defined a structured process for evaluating potential vulnerabilities, performing boundary & penetration testing, and evaluating the results in a logical matter. This approach was incorporated as part of the quality system and utilized across the company in testing multiple product lines. The process could be scaled from “light” to “heavy” based on the needs of the team performing the evaluation. The use of automation tools for “fuzzing” (sending in deliberately mal-formed packets) and other security testing was crucial for meeting tight deliverable schedules within the framework of SITE. Over the years, the original SITE initiative has evolved and now is included within the scope of other security enhancement programs (run by some real sharp engineers) that raise the standards to even a higher level.

What does the banking industry lack? Basically the online financial industry needs to define a SITE type of initiative and a set of common standards for securing their websites. The problem is not the inclusion of vulnerabilities (which will always pop-up), but the lack of screening for vulnerabilities in a structured manner. Banks do not have a methodical approach to find the vulnerabilities, nor a structured system for ranking and resolving the issues. Most banks are flying blind to what potential vulnerabilities currently exist on their websites because testing has only been performed piecemeal over time.

Banks and brokerages have a lot at stake; losses from compromised accounts continue to mount. It is time to raise the bar in the financial industry and reduce the exposure faced by customers. This requires a change in direction for security practices, and includes a need for information services cooperation between competing institutions. The best approach would be to create a focused team with IT representatives from multiple banks to define a central testing standard utilizing a structured approach for evaluating the security of online banking websites. After adoption, the methodology would need to be driven as a requirement across the industry.

Important: Funds over the FDIC limit at WaMu

If there is one post to sit up and pay attention to this month - This is the post.

Get your funds over the FDIC limit out of WaMu now! There appears to be a run on the bank forming and one likely end-game will be the FDIC seizing the bank; similar to the situation with another large bank, IndyMac, recently.

Knowledgeable investors have been removing funds for several weeks and now the situation has caught the attention of the mainstream press. A recent report by Gimme Credit cited liquidity concerns with Washington Mutual.

"We won't use the phrase `run on the bank,' but we would be remiss if we did not observe that many creditors have quietly been pulling funds,'' wrote Shanley, based in Chicago. Their actions are "presenting an increasing funding challenge,'' she wrote.'

The bank disputes the findings stating that 7 billion cash infusion led by TPG Inc, cost reduction plans, and a lack of need for commercial paper will help Washington Mutual ride out the storm. Many analysts are skeptical. These restructuring actions are helpful but will not enable the bank to survive a crush of depositors withdrawing funds from an institution that is increasingly looking like a house of cards. Standard depositors are likely to follow the lead of savvy unsecured creditors over the upcoming weeks as more bad press continues.

The second day of WM stock in free-fall is a more telling sign about the challenges facing the institution. While some would state that withdrawing your funds over the FDIC limit does not help the stability of the bank, the other side of the coin states that why should your be out of your funds from a personal finance perspective because you did not take action in the early stages while the crisis was unfolding.

Wachovia Earnings Call

Wachovia held its earnings call Tuesday. As expected the news was bleak; headlined by an $8.9 Billion loss, a steep dividend cut, and 10,750 job cuts. However, the stock rallied on the news and earnings call. While the loss and job cuts are painful, it appears that Wachovia has a plan to turn its operations around and deal with the bank’s mortgage exposure.

The stock rally demonstrates the confidence that Wall Street has in new CEO Robert Steel. Some of the points in the turn-around plan were outlined in the conference call transcript. Wachovia will not be raising more capital or selling additional stock that would dilute current shareholders stake. The dividend cut to 5 cents per share will save $700 million per quarter, while the wholesale mortgage operation will be shut down. Analysts expect that the bank will remain an independent operation.

Wachovia: Turning the corner

The recent press headlines for Wachovia have been bleak recently; auction-rate security investigation raids, analyst downgrades, and sliding share prices. It seems that the bank can't catch a break from the negative media coverage. This is on top of all the earlier problems that led many to question the underlying integrity of the entire institution which in the past has joined telemarketers to scam it's own customers, and was fined $145 million from the Feds.

Despite all the difficult news there is a bright spot -- and his name is new CEO Robert Steel . Right from the initial conference call it appears that he is on the right track. He is going to first evaluate the "challenges" faced by the bank with particular focus on the residential mortgage portfolio and exposure to commercial real estate. Steel promises to outline his strategy on July 22, when the bank is slated to report its second quarter earnings. In a couple days we will be able to see how Wall Street reacts to the earnings and the vision of the new leadership.

Based on his reputation in both capital markets and government; Steel is likely to restore what is most important to Wachovia - a reputation for integrity.

Is Your Bank Next?

A slew of mainsteam press articles a month back stated that the credit crunch was over. Not so fast! As outlined in articles on HingeFire in May (see Is the Financial Crunch over?) the financial sector is ripe for continued turmoil.

The top headline news today outlined the shares of U.S. banks plummeting amid stability fears. Sizeable regional banks such as Wachovia, WaMu, and National City are near the top of the list that investors believe have the likelihood to fail.

‘"It's the cockroach theory. You don't just have one bank failure -- when you have a big bank go under, there's always more than one," said James Ellman, president of hedge fund Seacliff Capital, who is short some financial stocks.’

The failure of IndyMac in many ways was a standard run on a bank. Panicked depositors lined up outside the doors pulling out $100 million a day causing what regulators called the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history. It was clear to regulators, politicians, and investors that IndyMac was in trouble, leaving only the question of degree. This type on depositor driven panic could easily happen to other struggling regional-type banks.

'One woman leaned on the locked doors, pleading with an employee inside: "Please, please, I want to take out a portion." All she could do was read a two-page notice taped to the door.'

At some point the FDIC will not be able to handle the level of defaults. While the FDIC has staffed up expecting more failures, the federally sponsored insurance agency is primarily focused on merging banks in trouble. The FDIC does not have deep pockets to bail out a chain of sizeable cascading failures.

Regional banks are not the only concern. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are in deep trouble. To avoid total financial market panic, the White House administration has ask Congress this past weekend to approve a plan that would provide a credit line of some $300 billion to the troubled GSEs and buy their stock. The Fed passed measures to allow both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to borrow at its discount window. Clearly, the government's hand was forced by a $3 billion Freddie auction scheduled for today that would have revealed the extent of the disaster without government intervention.

Is your bank next?

Will you be lined up at the door of your local institution begging to get your money out while the door is slammed in your face?

This is a time to carefully evaluate the safety rating of your local bank where you have deposited your money. If the bank looks the least bit shaky then your should get your funds out before a wide-spread panic develops.

Is Lehman Next?

Lehman Brothers has plunged over the past few days as Wall Street is speculating if it is the next Bear Stearns. The bank has fought these allegations with a string of press releases and appearances stating that it is properly capitalized and reducing debt. (Wait a minute, this sounds familiar – didn’t Bear do the same thing).

A string of major articles outlining Lehman’s woes has not helped the situation. The Wall Street Journal stating that the bank’s “balance-sheet troubles threaten to harm the wider financial system unless the bank takes decisive action”. The paper went on to say the firm will be forced to sell all or parts of itself to stay above water. Naturally this news has LEH stock targeting 52 week lows.

Lehman’s has not taken the press sitting down; it has come out swinging at parties that portray the bank in a negative light. At the top of the list is head fund chief, David Einhorn, who runs a $6 billion hedge fund called Greenlight Capital. (Lehman Battles an Insurgent Investor). He has been a vocal critic of Lehman’s and has profited on their pain by shorting the stock. According to most market watchers, “Mr. Einhorn instigated the latest dive in Lehman’s stock price two weeks ago when he encouraged other investors to short the stock at a large conference in New York”. He followed this up by agitating for a reduction in debt ratings for Lehman Brothers.

The firm is trying to portray Mr. Einhorn as a short-seller who is simply trying to pad is pocket by spreading negative news about Lehmans. Many on Wall Street simply point to the many times he has been correct in the past. In any account, the situation will play itself out over the next few weeks. It is unwise to underestimate the headwinds facing Lehman Brothers, their eroding mortgage portfolio represents a systemic risk not only to themselves but other Wall Street firms. The media is most likely right on target when stating that a merger is needed and the bank is at serious risk.

The question remains of how much LEH will sink below $31 in the next couple of months. Will the firm regain investor confidence or is it doomed for a big fall?

Wachovia CEO given the Boot

The dirty laundry list appears to be almost endless, aiding telemarketers to steal money from account holders, money laundering investigations, selling customer lists, and a host of other activities that have Wachovia in trouble with regulators. Now all the problems have caught up with America’s most ethically challenged bank, CEO Ken Thompson of Wachovia has been shoved out the door.

Certainly the very poor acquisitions of mortgage companies such as Golden West also played into the decision. The resulting financial fallout has left Wachovia in state where it may need to further cut dividends and re-structuring.

"No single precipitating event caused the board to reach this decision, but a series of previously disclosed disappointments and setbacks cumulatively have negatively impacted the company and its performance," Smith said. It would be better to hear commentary on how Wachovia will in the future stay out of trouble with regulators and customers.

An earlier Hingefire article asked when the CEO would walk the plank (see Wachovia: Take Three Steps), now the board has taken steps to right the ship. The question remains if the directors can find a CEO candidate that has the moral backbone to place the bank back on course.